How Europe’s defence against Putin could look without the US

For 75 years, European defence has rested on a simple premise: US power underwrites the continent’s security. American air and missile defences, intelligence, logistics, long-range strike capabilities and, above all, its nuclear umbrella have formed the backbone of Nato’s European deterrence.

In the face of Donald Trump, that is now being questioned. The US’s National Security Strategy last year explicitly stated that European countries must assume “significantly greater responsibility” for their own defences. This was not just diplomatic rhetoric: it reflects a major strategic shift.

China, not Russia, is now seen as America’s primary long-term competitor and Europe has to prepare for a future in which US support is increasingly reduced, delayed or politically conditional. War with Iran will have only further distracted the US from the needs of its European allies, and exposed the limits on Europe’s own military capabilities.

California vote may lead to kitchen stone ban

Exercise ‘as key as medication’ for older people’s health

Labour policies Burnham is plotting to U-turn on

Younger people more ill than past generations, study says

California vote may lead to kitchen stone ban

State officials in California have voted in favour of a ban on engineered stone kitchen worktops blamed for rising cases of silicosis.A US ban on the high-silica stone – also known as quartz – would follow Australia becoming the first country to outlaw engineered stone in 2024.

Health and safety regulators approve ban

California’s Occupational Safety and Health Standards Board has set in motion a ban on the making and installing of artificial worktop stone containing more than 1 per cent crystalline silica.When inhaled during cutting, quartz dust can cause the deadly lung disease silicosis, putting kitchen fabricators who work with the material at risk.

I have a deadly lung disease from killer kitchen dust. These worktops must be banned

Cases on the rise in California

Engineered stone silicosis has been identified in

cases in the state – 98 per cent of these are Latino and 99.8 per cent are male.

The first cases were diagnosed in 2018.

have died so far. There have been 58 lung transplants recorded.

The average age of death is 52, while the median age of diagnosis is 46.

What does it mean for the UK?

The i Paper launched the Killer Kitchens campaign in 2025. So far, it has led to a crackdown on deadly dust, including a nationwide campaign of 1,000 inspections by the Health and Safety Executive (HSE), and a new safety kitemark scheme.Unions have called for a full ban, which HSE has not completely ruled out. But UK authorities hope to be able to control the problem by enforcing a ban on “dry-cutting” without water-based tools to suppress dust.

Killer kitchen dust banned after lung disease deaths of young workers

Total ban on killer kitchen-worktop stone 'under consideration'

Just ban it, says silicosis sufferer

You can have all the water-fed tools in the world. There’s still going to be dust in the air and on your clothes

You can have all the water-fed tools in the world. There’s still going to be dust in the air and on your clothes

Ryan Fenton, 50, one of more than 50 British stonemasons diagnosed with the incurable disease, says a ban is the only way forward.Four men have died from silicosis in the UK, and the youngest sufferer, aged 23, is on the waiting list for a lung transplant.

Exercise ‘as key as medication’ for older people’s health

Exercise is just as important for keeping elderly people healthy as medicines, a new report from MPs suggests, with low activity levels linked to several killer diseases.

What did the report say?

A lack of exercise is a “major driver of ill health in later life”, linked to several common health conditions, including obesity, type 2 diabetes, heart disease and cancer.

Taking more exercise can also help prevent frailty, dementia and disability. The report suggested yoga and swimming as moderate aerobic activity suitable for old people.

Lack of exercise can kill

A lack of activity is associated with

deaths in the UK.

It is estimated to cost the country

Prescribing exercise is not only cheaper than medicine , it can be even be more effective, according to experts.

Tell patients to exercise, say experts

Health professionals are a trusted source of advice, but too many people report never being encouraged to be active. [They] have an important role in encouraging and supporting people to include physical activity in the management of their health commons health and social care committee

Health professionals are a trusted source of advice, but too many people report never being encouraged to be active. [They] have an important role in encouraging and supporting people to include physical activity in the management of their health

Almost half of over-75s doing less than 30 minutes per week

Older people should aim for 150 minutes of moderate each week, focussed on muscle strength, balance and flexibility.The Care Quality Commission should make sure this is being provided in care homes, the report recommended. Councils should improve roads, crossings and toilets to encourage older people to get around.

I didn’t exercise for decades – now at 73 I teach acrobatics

Labour policies Burnham is plotting to U-turn on

As Andy Burnham sets out his bid for the Makerfield by-election, a debate is already underway behind the scenes as to how far he would depart from Sir Keir Starmer’s agenda if he were to replace him as PM. Here, The i Paper takes a look at what he could change.

Fiscal rules and tax promises to stay the same

Daily spending will continue to be funded by taxation as under Reeves

The public debt should fall over time, calming the bond markets

No rise planned for income tax, employee national insurance or VAT

Burnham's fight for No 10 could be in jeopardy – and it's down to one issue

What could he change?

Burnham has long opposed the student loan system. If elected, he would likely scrap tuition fees and replace them with a graduate tax.

He has also been outspoken in his criticism of David Lammy’s jury trial reforms, which he is expected to scrap entirely if he gets in. The measures involve getting rid of juries for crime with sentences of three years or less.

Net zero by 2030 and new North Sea drilling?

I am not saying that I have completely made a view, actually, on the North Sea.

I am not saying that I have completely made a view, actually, on the North Sea.

Though Burnham is said to be committed to the green targets of Ed Miliband, tipped to be his pick for chancellor, he has not ruled out issuing new oil and gas licenses.

Watch more from The i Paper

@theipaper Opinion | “In times to come, British politicians, historians and voters will try to figure out how, in the first quarter of the 21st century, Nigel Farage became one of the most powerful operators on these isles,” writes Yasmin Alibhai-Brown. “How did he lure and captivate so many? Why did they not question his fibs and postures?” Read Yasmins’s full piece on the @theipaper website. nigelfarage reformuk reform ukpolitics ♬ original sound – The i Paper – The i Paper

Opinion | “In times to come, British politicians, historians and voters will try to figure out how, in the first quarter of the 21st century, Nigel Farage became one of the most powerful operators on these isles,” writes Yasmin Alibhai-Brown. “How did he lure and captivate so many? Why did they not question his fibs and postures?” Read Yasmins’s full piece on the @theipaper website. nigelfarage reformuk reform ukpolitics

Younger people more ill than past generations, study says

The UK is experiencing a “generational health drift”, with younger people suffering poor health earlier than in previous generations, researchers say.An overview of health studies on people born between 1946 and 2001 found little improvement in health conditions, with some becoming more prevalent.

It implies that society is not reaching the biological limits of health improvement but rather seeing the consequences of preventable social and environmental exposures that have shaped population health over time and across generations. experts from University College London, King’s College London and the University of Oxford

It implies that society is not reaching the biological limits of health improvement but rather seeing the consequences of preventable social and environmental exposures that have shaped population health over time and across generations.

What did the study find?

Obesity, mental health and diabetes were all more common among today’s young people than in previous cohorts. The study looked at 88,500 people across 51 studies.

As life expectancy increases and birth rates decline, scientists are trying to understand healthy ageing to better be able to support an older population.

Watch more from The i Paper

@theipaper Would you trust a self-driving taxi or bus? The UK government is preparing to launch driverless transport trials later this year, despite recent complaints about autonomous cars getting stuck and blaring alarms. Tap the link above to read more ⬆️ #driverlesstaxis #Taxis #Transport #News ♬ original sound – The i Paper – The i Paper

Would you trust a self-driving taxi or bus? The UK government is preparing to launch driverless transport trials later this year, despite recent complaints about autonomous cars getting stuck and blaring alarms. Tap the link above to read more ⬆️ #driverlesstaxis #Taxis #Transport #News

Europe can’t replicate US power. However, it does not need to: the key task is deterrence, not substitution. Within three to five years, Europe must reach a credible threshold to convince Moscow that attacking Nato territory would be catastrophic.

That objective is narrow and achievable. Russia is unlikely to mount a large-scale conventional assault on Nato in the immediate term. But it will continue probing Europe through cyber operations, sabotage, political interference and calibrated military pressure, potentially testing cohesion along the alliance’s eastern flank.

Since 2022, European defence has fundamentally changed. Last year, the EU as a whole reached the target of 2 per cent of GDP spent on defence. The EU, along with the UK and Norway, now spend about €485bn a year on defence, compared with €305bn in 2022.

Preparation must extend far beyond procurement, however. Deterrence in this decade requires political cohesion and whole-of-society resilience. It is not merely a question of hardware. Air defence, munitions and manpower are necessary, but insufficient on their own.

Russia’s army – often described as battered and exhausted – can’t be underestimated. Despite an estimated 1.2 million casualties since it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Moscow has replenished its ranks through continued recruitment. Russian artillery shell production has risen to more than 4 million rounds a year, supplemented by large imports from North Korea.

Russia has also adapted to attritional warfare, has scaled up drone and missile production under sanctions and has embedded nuclear blackmail into its doctrine. It has integrated cyber operations, sabotage, organised crime networks and other forces as part of a continuum of conflict.

War has become central to Vladimir Putin’s survival. Defence spending now consumes roughly 7 per cent of Russian GDP and over a third of its federal spending. The country’s economy has been reorganised around sustained military production. Mobilisation and repression have reinforced internal control. Conflict is no longer an aberration; it is structural.

Meanwhile, Europe is still forced to depend heavily on US tech and expertise.

Air and missile defences remain patchy across much of the continent. The UK, strikingly, has almost no land-based air defence coverage. Intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance are also US-dominated. American satellite architecture provides much of Nato’s high-end real-time battlefield awareness. Europe has national assets – France notably – and Germany is investing further, but integration is fragmented and nowhere near US scale.

Nuclear deterrence is the most sensitive gap. Britain and France maintain credible strategic arsenals but there is no clearly defined European nuclear doctrine beyond the US umbrella. Russia, meanwhile, has tactical nuclear weapons designed precisely for battlefield use – an escalation layer the UK eliminated decades ago to save money.

If Europe tried to fully replace the US, some experts believe defence spending would need to hit 8 to 10 per cent of GDP. This looks politically unrealistic. For two decades, European militaries optimised themselves for expeditionary missions and precision technology. The idea was that smaller, professional forces with advanced systems could compensate for scale.

The Ukraine war has challenged that assumption. Drones and AI adaptation are now crucial, with Ukraine ahead of both Europe and the US in battlefield innovation. Integrating Ukraine more closely into European defence structures is therefore not charity but strategic necessity.

The war in Ukraine has also demonstrated that mass matters. Ammunition stockpiles matter. Industrial capacity matters. Numbers matter.

The British Army has fallen below 70,000 personnel – the smallest it has been since the eighteenth century, with nuclear deterrents absorbing roughly a quarter of the UK’s defence budget. Sustaining even limited deployments for extended periods of time would strain rotation capacity.

Across Europe, manpower remains a challenge. The problem is not an absence of capability, but a shortage of depth; the ability to sustain combat over time.

Ultimately, Europe’s biggest vulnerability may not be hardware but political will. Deterrence requires sustained investment over years, likely at the expense of other priorities. It may require higher taxes or constrained welfare spending. Few European leaders have explained this openly to their publics.

In places like the Baltics, Nordics and Poland, proximity to Russia has created a “whole-of-society” resilience culture. Citizens understand the risk. Elsewhere, the political class remains more comfortable with negotiation and compromise than with preparing people for a future conflict.

Europe could deter Russia if investment continues and coordination deepens. But the most dangerous period is before that threshold is reached. Russia may look to test Nato cohesion through cyber operations or calibrated military intimidation. Nuclear signalling would also likely intensify.

Europe needs to prepare accordingly. It needs to continue and increase investing into manpower, air defence, munitions and mobility, as well as enhance intelligence integration. It needs to prepare its people.

Economically, this is achievable. The combined economy of Nato’s European members is roughly five times larger than Russia’s in purchasing power parity terms, and their troops exceed Russia’s military by several hundred thousand. The issue is coordination, political resolve and public consent.

The US’s security guarantees have been both shield and crutch. If they shrink or disappear entirely, Europe will face a difficult and dangerous period. The question isn’t whether Europe is capable, it is whether it is prepared to act before the risks of Russian aggression grow too great.

Katia Glod is the deputy director of foreign policy at the New Eurasian Strategies Centre