Leeds have allowed far fewer shots than Burnley – their defence deserves more credit

“We’ve spoken about a few areas (we want to improve). Overall, to gameday 40, we had the best defence in the league and, sadly, in the last six games we gave this away. This is one of our claims, we want to be the best defence in the league next season.”

Daniel Farke could not have been clearer when speaking last summer after Leeds United missed out on automatic promotion.

We are now nearly two-thirds of the way through Farke’s second campaign. Leeds are two points ahead at the top of the table and have conceded just 19 goals. Only third-placed Burnley, who drew with Leeds 0-0 on Monday, have conceded fewer — a remarkable nine in 29 matches.

After trawling through data for the Championship going back to 2004-05, The Athletic found that Reading’s 2005-06 side had the next best record after 29 matches, with 15 goals conceded. That Reading team still holds the division’s record points total of 106.

There are only another five teams in the past 20 years who have conceded fewer goals than Leeds after 29 matches. Across the 480 squads that have contested Championship campaigns since 2004-05, Leeds have the eighth-best defensive record at this stage of a season.

Goals conceded never tell the whole story, however. Much was made of how predictable, with hindsight, a goalless draw was going to be at Turf Moor this week; the division’s two best defences facing off in dire conditions, knowing a draw was not a terrible result for either of them.

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Burnley were rightly lauded afterwards for their 20th clean sheet of the campaign. The Lancashire outfit, particularly goalkeeper James Trafford, deserve praise for such a statistic, but has their once-in-a-lifetime defensive form left Leeds’ achievement of 17 clean sheets somewhat overlooked?

Burnley’s expected goals allowed (xGA) is 24.3 this season. United’s is 19.2, the lowest tally in the division. In layman’s terms, Leeds are allowing their opponents fewer chances, or lower-quality chances, than Burnley and ‘should have’ conceded five goals fewer than Burnley.

However, while Leeds are performing in line with their xG, Burnley are wildly overperforming theirs. They ‘should have’ conceded 15 more goals than they have, but are simply keeping those chances out, which is usually unsustainable.

In the table below, defensive data from this season has been broken down into per-game statistics. Leeds are conceding chances which amount to 0.59 goals (xG) per game, while Burnley concede 0.79 xG per game. You can then see the disparity between expected goals and actual goals conceded in the third column. Leeds are performing pretty much as the data would expect, while Burnley are keeping out 0.48 more goals than expected per game.

Aside from xG, the data for shots faced per game would also suggest Leeds actually have the best defence in the division. Farke’s side have allowed 6.3 efforts per match up to now, while Burnley are second with 9.3. This means Leeds are allowing three fewer shots on their goal, per game, than Burnley. And, of course, the fewer shots you allow the opponent, the smaller the chance of them scoring.

So the data all points to Leeds having the better defence, except ultimately it’s about keeping the ball out of the net and, in real terms, Burnley have done a better job up to now.

Leeds have improved under Farke, however. At this stage of last season, Leeds had conceded 26 goals. This season, they have conceded seven fewer. How?

The key cogs have been the centre-backs and midfield pivot in front. Joe Rodon has underlined why he was such a crucial buy at £10million ($12.4m) last summer. As the right-sided centre-back, he has been particularly important in covering for Jayden Bogle after his raids down the right flank.

On Monday night, there was a good example. Bogle had ventured upfield, Burnley turned the ball over and swiftly moved the ball to Zian Flemming for a counter-attack. In the image below, you can see Rodon has already moved over to the right, covering Bogle, to deal with winger Lyle Foster.

Foster gets between Rodon and Ethan Ampadu as Flemming releases the ball. It’s a race. More than once this season, Rodon has shown an unexpected turn of pace. It gets him out of trouble here.

If Foster gets there first, he’s one-on-one with Illan Meslier. Not only does Rodon beat the winger, he slows up, shields the ball, draws a push and then buys a free kick to relieve any Burnley pressure. Pace, positioning, composure, decision-making and anticipation are all on show.

One of the big reasons Leeds concede so few shots is because they stop opposition attacks in their own half.

Below, against Sheffield United in October, the visitors try to clear their lines and build a counter off their 6ft 5in (196cm) striker Kieffer Moore. Pascal Struijk, Rodon’s long-term partner in the centre who has been missing recently, is pressing well inside the away half.

Not only does Struijk win the aerial duel, but he safely gets the ball to Joe Rothwell. Leeds can build another attack of their own immediately inside the final third. Moore, grounded, can only complain to the referee for a foul.

There is another memorable example from this season of Leeds turning the ball over inside the final third. When Ampadu, unfortunately, injured his lateral knee ligament against Coventry City in September, it was due to a crunching tackle he executed.

Influential midfielder Ben Sheaf received the ball in his own third with Leeds out of shape after an attack. Ampadu, playing as one of the two midfielders in Farke’s 4-2-3-1, can see the danger and does not hesitate to close Sheaf down.

It’s a full-blooded but clean tackle from Ampadu. That tackling ability, anticipation and aggression, all over the pitch, have been central to this defensive unit.

The force of the challenge puts Leeds immediately into another attack of their own.

Brenden Aaronson collects, Mateo Joseph makes the run in behind and his eventual low cross fails to find a team-mate from seven yards out. Ampadu’s aforementioned injury, along with Ilia Gruev’s, meant Farke had to call on Ao Tanaka and Rothwell as midfield enforcers through the middle third of the season.

Each of them has shown superb passing, vision and technique in United attacks, but in Tanaka’s case especially, the defensive work has been a pleasure to watch too. The below example was at Swansea City in November. Josh Tymon has gone past several Leeds players by the time he enters the away half at speed.

If Tymon gets past Tanaka, Swansea have a five-v-three in their advantage, with Struijk then needing to step out of the back line to stop the marauding left-back.

Tymon does not get past Tanaka. Not for the first time, Tanaka executes an inch-perfect, rock-solid tackle to stop Tymon in his tracks. It’s become one of Tanaka’s trademarks.

His reading of the game has been outstanding and he stands out as one of the Leeds players you would not have many doubts about in the Premier League. Here, his tackle has turned defence into an attack with an overload down the right for Leeds.

The way he stepped in to cover for Ampadu, or the way Ampadu has stepped in for Struijk, have been crucial in keeping this team so locked down when the opponent has a rare go at them. Leeds have bossed 62 per cent of possession this season, which is another key reason their opponents have so few opportunities to get shots at their goal.

“My belief is attack is the best defence and the more you have the ball, if you don’t score own goals, the more difficult it is for the opponent to score,” Farke said on Thursday. “If you are just losing the ball far away in the opponent’s half, the way to your own goal is much longer. If you are then capable of controlling the counters, you can be pretty good in defending.”

Perhaps achieving Farke’s summer aim is still achievable with 17 games to go. If only they had another chance to dent Burnley’s goals-against column.

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(Top photo: Joe Rodon against Burnley; by Matt McNulty via Getty Images)

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