What happens if Iran does not play at the World Cup?

Iran's World Cup participation could be in doubt Kevin Dietsch / Getty Images

A version of this article was first published on March 2. It has been updated after Iran’s sports minister suggested the country might boycott the tournament and after U.S. President Donald Trump said it wouldn’t be “appropriate” for Iran to participate. It has been updated again following confirmation of Iraq becoming the 48th and final qualified team.

Following the conclusion of the final qualification playoffs, we now know the 48 teams who will play at the 2026 World Cup in North America. Or do we?

Questions have continued to swirl around Iran’s participation ever since United States and Israeli military strikes on the Persian country began in February. The ongoing assault has killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, plus more than 1,000 civilians, according to local authorities.

The attacks have triggered a widening conflict in the Middle East, which, in the immediate term, disrupted neighboring Iraq’s preparations for their World Cup qualifying playoff in March. But the broader questions concern Iran and the full World Cup, which is slated for June and July in 16 cities across the United States, Canada and Mexico.

The Iranian men’s national team qualified comfortably last year, and is scheduled to play all three of its Group G games in the U.S. — against New Zealand (June 15, at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles), Belgium (June 21, also at SoFi) and Egypt (June 26, at Lumen Field in Seattle).

But Iran’s sports minister, Ahmad Donyamali, told state TV last month the team “certainly” cannot participate in the tournament, “given that this corrupt (U.S.) regime has assassinated our leader”.

A day later, U.S. President Donald Trump wrote on social media that, “I really don’t believe it is appropriate (for Iran to) be there, for their own life and safety”.

If Iran withdraws, global soccer governing body FIFA’s regulations give it broad discretion to call in a replacement national team or otherwise adjust the tournament accordingly.

So, what happens if Iran does withdraw from a World Cup that is less than three months away?

What happens if Iran pulls out?

Article 6 of FIFA’s 2026 World Cup regulations, published last year, addresses cases of non-participation — but with little specificity.

Regulation 6.5 addresses “force majeure”, an irresistible force or unforeseen event: “If a Participating Member Association withdraws or a match cannot be played or is abandoned as a result of force majeure, the authorised FIFA organising body (including the Tournament Operation Centre) shall decide on the matter at its sole discretion and take whatever action is deemed necessary.”

Regulation 6.7 then states: “If any Participating Member Association withdraws and/or is excluded from the FIFA World Cup 26, FIFA shall decide on the matter at its sole discretion and take whatever action is deemed necessary. FIFA may decide to replace the Participating Member Association in question with another association.”

FIFA, therefore, would essentially have two broad options if Iran withdraws, either by choice or force. FIFA could cancel its three group games and tweak rules to treat Group G as a three-team section, or it could replace Iran with another country’s national team.

Finding a replacement, however, would be complicated by timing. The war could last weeks or months yet — nobody knows. Iran, as a country and a team, might not have clarity on World Cup participation any time soon. Any withdrawal would therefore be relatively last-minute.

Which teams could replace Iran?

The multi-stage format of Asian World Cup qualifying makes choosing a substitute nation on merit tricky.

Iran qualified by winning Group A in Asia’s third qualifying round. Uzbekistan, the section’s second-placed team, also earned an automatic berth. The third- and fourth-placed teams, United Arab Emirates and Qatar, went to a fourth round — where Qatar ultimately also secured its place at the tournament. UAE, on the other hand, lost a playoff to Iraq which, with that win, earned a spot in further playoffs — the intercontinental edition, which they went on to win against Bolivia to secure their place at the tournament.

With Iraq’s victory, UAE would presumably be next in line as a potential replacement for Iran.

Or, FIFA would look outside Asia. It could choose the intercontinental playoff loser (South America’s Bolivia). It could pick the top-ranked team that didn’t qualify, which would be Italy following their failure to advance from the European playoffs. Under FIFA’s own rules, it could do whatever it wants.

Given the murkiness, and with his players stuck in their country due to airspace closures, Iraq coach Graham Arnold had proposed that FIFA postpone that March 31 playoff final to allow for key decisions and further developments. “If Iran withdraws, we go into the World Cup and it gives the UAE, who we beat in qualifying, the chance to prepare for either Bolivia or Suriname,” Arnold told the Australian Associated Press before qualification.

FIFA is yet to respond to Donyamali’s comments.

Is there precedent for replacement teams at World Cups?

There is no modern-era World Cup precedent. The last time countries withdrew from a World Cup after qualifying for it was 1950. That year, Scotland and Turkey pulled out before the draw, India and France followed suit after it, and the first post-Second World War edition was contested by only 13 nations — sorted into two groups of four, one of three and one of two.

The most relevant modern precedent is the 2025 Club World Cup. Last March, less than three months before the United States-hosted tournament began, FIFA kicked out Mexican qualifier León, citing multi-club ownership rules. Appeals stretched into early May.

When the Court of Arbitration for Sport rejected those appeals, on May 6, FIFA — after discussing alternatives for months — announced that Club América (as the top-ranked Mexican team) and LAFC (as the team that lost to León two years earlier in the Concacaf Champions League final that originally earned León its place) would compete in a one-game playoff on May 31 for the last spot at the Club World Cup. LAFC won the playoff and replaced León in Group D.

FIFA, in theory, could stage a similar playoff to replace Iran if necessary. The World Cup, though, requires significantly more logistical planning than the club game's version. Naming a replacement team with only a few weeks of lead time would come with challenges.

Why wouldn’t Iran participate?

There are several potential reasons for non-participation:

Iran could essentially boycott the World Cup in response to the U.S. attacks.

Several entities could decide that, for different reasons, its team’s participation isn’t safe.

The U.S. government could also restrict Iran's participation.

Donyamali spoke to the first two reasons, citing the "malicious actions carried out against Iran". He also said: "Our players do not have security, and fundamentally the conditions for participation do not exist".

The third possibility seemingly faded when FIFA president Gianni Infantino, after a meeting with Trump, claimed the U.S. president had "reiterated that the Iranian team is, of course, welcome to compete in the tournament in the United States". But around 36 hours later, Trump added to the message, and seemed to suggest that the Iran team’s "life and safety" would be at risk if it participated.

He did say Iran was "welcome". But separately, he and his administration have barred travelers from Iran and three other World Cup-participating countries, with only limited exceptions for "any athlete or member of an athletic team, including coaches, persons performing a necessary support role, and immediate relatives, traveling for the World Cup, Olympics, or other major sporting event". And, in the fall, multiple Iranian delegates had visas denied before December’s group-stage draw.

When asked why, Andrew Giuliani, head of the White House World Cup task force, said at the time that "every visa decision is a national security decision".

If FIFA wasn’t able to intervene and overturn those decisions, it likely couldn’t prevent the Trump administration from barring individuals or even an entire team before the tournament itself.

Could Iran’s World Cup games be moved from the U.S. to Mexico?

A social media post from the Iranian embassy in Mexico last month only served to heighten the growing sense of uncertainty when it was claimed negotiations had begun with tournament organisers to relocate Iran’s games away from the United States. Mexico, it was said, could offer the solution while the U.S. continues its military attacks on Iran.

"When (U.S. President Donald) Trump has explicitly stated that he cannot ensure the security of the Iranian national team, we will certainly not travel to America," read a statement attributed to Mehdi Taj, president of the Iranian Football Federation, in a post on X. "We are currently negotiating with FIFA to hold Iran’s matches in the World Cup in Mexico."

That would threaten a schedule mapped out as far back as December 6 and demand wider considerations if Iran were to advance from the group stages.

FIFA has stressed there are no plans to relocate any of its games and that it is looking forward to "all participating teams competing as per the match schedule announced on December 6, 2025".

The Athletic assessed the feasibility of moving games if organisers had to and what any contingencies might look like, below.

Could the U.S. attacks imperil the country’s co-hosting of this World Cup?

Of course, there is no precedent for a World Cup host bombing a participating nation less than four months before the tournament. But there do not appear to be security concerns in the mainland U.S. stemming from the conflict in the Gulf region.

And there have been no suggestions from anyone at FIFA that it would consider relocating games scheduled to be played in the U.S. as a penalty for the military assault. There is also no known regulation that would force FIFA to act.

Other countries could boycott, but international reaction to the attacks has been mixed — far from the type of unanimous condemnation that would lead to meaningful calls for a widespread withdrawal from the World Cup.

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