‘Shy Reformers’ cause nerves among rivals as election day arrives
Before the 1992 general election, the polls were effectively deadlocked. Most experts predicted a hung parliament or a narrow Labour victory, ending 13 years of Tory rule.
As it turned out, John Major’s government returned to power with a majority of 21 after acquiring 2.5 million more votes than Neil Kinnock’s party.
Pollsters blamed “shy Tories” — those who voted Conservative in the privacy of the ballot box but did not want to admit it — for their misreading of the election.
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Thirty-four years later, Holyrood politicians of all stripes fear a similar phenomenon. This time, it is not an unexpected surge in the Scottish Tory vote that is giving them sleepless nights, but the prospect of the emergence of the “shy Reformer”.
Much has been made of a high number of undecided voters in the Holyrood election, both in public polls and parties’ internal canvassing data.
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Some fear the explanation is not that they have not made up their minds, but that they secretly plan to vote for Nigel Farage’s party on Thursday.
Experts are predicting a low turnout, with a deep lack of enthusiasm for the election picked up by canvassers from all parties. “If there was a ‘scunnered party’, it would win a landslide,” one tired and leg-weary Conservative candidate said.
In 2021, a Covid election, there was a record high for a devolved election of 63.6 per cent. On Thursday psephologists speculated it could be in the low fifties, or worse.
An early warning sign is a decrease in the number of postal vote applications. Almost a quarter — 23.8 per cent — applied for a postal vote last time, which has fallen to under a fifth.
In some west of Scotland seats, turnout is typically ten points lower than the national average, giving rise to the risk of shock results.
While it is accepted Reform UK is on course for a historic breakthrough at Holyrood, some fear that even this level of support is underestimated.
“They are like a cuckoo in the nest,” one Labour candidate, who had been struck by awkward interactions on doorsteps with undecided voters, said.
“It is bad enough to see Reform polling at nearly 20 per cent, but loath as I am to admit it, there could be many more seeping away from those who were with us at the general election.
“There’s no way of quantifying it. It’s awkward, you can see they are too embarrassed to tell you that’s what they are going to do.
“We can be winning tactical voters in one area of the constituency, but losing numbers in areas of traditional Labour support to Reform.”
Privately, Tories have expressed confidence that in their heartlands, where support is holding up. After all, in 2024, the party’s national vote collapsed in Scotland, yet it retained five of the six constituencies won in 2019.
However, one Tory candidate admitted some previous supporters had become more “open and vocal” about their intention to back Reform as the campaign progressed.
He also suspected others were not entirely candid. “It is the ones who cannot look you in the eye that I worry about,” he said. “They are either not voting at all, or going straight over to Farage. The problem is determining the scale of it.”
Differential turnout — getting a party’s committed voters to the polls in bigger numbers than anyone else — is key to elections.
Scottish Labour’s “get out the vote operation” at the general election was a huge factor in its landslide, with the SNP way behind.
Under John Swinney, and with Angus Robertson in charge, the nationalist machine has improved. However, while the SNP is also losing votes to Reform, it is in smaller numbers than their unionist rivals.
“Shy voters have long been discussed to explain higher support for a party than polls suggest,” James Mitchell, professor of public policy at the University of Edinburgh, said. “These shy voters are reluctant to disclose voting intention but turn out and vote for a party.
“A concern for its opponents in this election is that Reform’s support may be stronger than the polls suggest for this reason. That adds to worries among Reform’s opponents.
“Turnout is the great unknown in this election: unknown what the turnout will be and unknown who and how the different parties will be affected. We can’t assume that a low turnout will depress support for all parties equally.”
When Reform emerged as a force in Scottish politics, some establishment figures consoled themselves that a lack of sophistication in a relatively new party, lacking years of data from past elections, would hamper their success.
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At the Hamilton by-election last year, Labour launched a highly targeted and ultimately successful operation aimed at persuading voters they knew had voted for the party in the past to come back into the fold. In contrast, Reform sent out an at times ragtag bunch of volunteers to knock on doors almost at random.
The key demographic targeted by Reform — male, disenfranchised and working class — are also generally less inclined to vote.
However, there remains conflicting evidence about whether Reform’s voters will stay at home on Thursday. “A relatively small share of the electorate are ‘all in’ on the party, but they are extremely motivated,” Fraser McMillan, of the Scottish Election Study, who has studied the progress of Reform, said.
“If they outperform their polling, it will be due to getting a lot of low-propensity voters to the polls, but the key thing about these people is that they aren’t in the habit of voting and, paradoxically, you’d see more of them show up in a higher turnout environment.”
As well as the possibility of low turnout, pollsters have also noted an unusually high number of voters who may yet change their minds. This, however, is not so much an issue for Reform, whose voters are less inclined to vote tactically.
Emily Gray, of Ipsos, said: “Reform UK’s support looks the firmest of any party’s ahead of polling day, with 83 per cent of their voters saying they have definitely decided to cast their constituency vote for Reform UK, compared to 76 per cent of SNP voters and 67 per cent of Labour voters.
“That said, with one in four voters still saying they may change their minds before they vote, we may still see last-minute shifts in voting intentions right up until voters get to the ballot box.”