SNP leaders would be foolish to disregard Sinn Fein’s past
Picture the scene: a bright, crisp afternoon in Edinburgh’s New Town. Three podiums are set out in Charlotte Square. Out of a grand Georgian door come the first ministers of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, who have just concluded a historic meeting of the emerging “Celtic alliance”.
John Swinney, Rhun ap Iorwerth and Michelle O’Neill proclaim a new era in constitutional politics, which, choosing their words carefully, they imply will result in the end of the United Kingdom. They publish what they call the Bute House Accord, promising to work together in a joint project to effect radical change.
A far-fetched scenario? It might not happen quite like that, but after the elections outside England, it is a vision SNP politicians are getting very excited about, and some UK politicians are already fretting about.
But as is often the case in politics, there is a danger of getting carried away in the moment, failing to step back to consider the political realities behind this pan-nationalist, post-election passion and to be aware of the histories of the movements for self-government.
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Put simply, Scottish, Irish and Welsh nationalisms are different, very different. It is naive — both for those who see great opportunity and those who see great danger in a first ministerial troika — to believe their movements are homogeneous, or even share the same objectives.
Take Sinn Fein. A party effectively established as the political wing of the Provisional IRA, it still carries that mindset and all that implies to this day. Sinn Fein politicians will never condemn what was called the “armed struggle”. Others, more accurately, call it terrorism. They can’t. It’s part of their history, their narrative, woven into the fabric of Ireland’s complex and often violent story.
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Swinney’s recent remarks that people should “move on” from this were ill-judged and demonstrated an apparent failure to understand that complex history. He would have been better to argue we should never forget what went before, but point out that politicians as far back as John Major, and then to great effect Tony Blair, engaged with PIRA and their political representatives.
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That engagement led to the enormous step forward of the Good Friday agreement, something in which Martin McGuinness, who admitted being in PIRA, and Gerry Adams, who denies he ever was, played a hugely significant part, along with Ulster Unionists. Though it can be uneasy, a peace has descended on Northern Ireland.
For Sinn Fein, now committed solely to democratic politics, the focus is on a border poll, north and south, to achieve their coveted aim of Irish unity. Yet this in itself is fraught with difficulty. Approval for a referendum has to be given by the UK and Irish governments, based on evidence — unspecified — that people across the island support a united Ireland.
Leave aside whether this outcome is desirable or not and whether, despite their support for the idea in theory, the traditional parties in the Republic, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, even want such a thing, which has enormous practical implications for the Irish economy and welfare state.
Such a poll would inevitably result in the resurfacing of old fears and enmities, which have been contained by the cross-community structure of devolution but have never gone away. We might hope such a debate would be a civil, inclusive process — and more thoughtful unionists in Northern Ireland are pondering how to fight a campaign for the status quo that looks forwards rather than backwards. But it could easily descend into tension and bitterness.
That is where the danger lies for Scotland’s first minister. Would he and his party want to be associated with something with the potential to turn ugly? Would he go to campaign for a united Ireland if a poll were held before his hoped-for referendum on Scottish independence? And how would his support for one side of the community there be seen by those in Scotland who identify with Ulster unionism?
Which leads us to the SNP’s history. It is to the party’s great credit it has always been a strictly constitutional nationalist movement, intent on achieving independence through entirely democratic, constitutional means. To reverse the question, would Swinney want O’Neill campaigning in Scotland, or even making her support for independence clear, were there to be a referendum here?
And then there’s Wales. It is an extraordinary achievement for Plaid Cymru to win the Senedd election and form a government in Cardiff. But Plaid’s history is different again from Sinn Fein or the SNP.
In Wales nationalism has generally, though not exclusively, been more cultural than political. Language and its place in society has often been more important than independence, something Plaid was ambivalent about in its successful campaign.
When the new Welsh cabinet meets and holds its proceedings in their native language, it appears unlikely their priority will be to press the UK government for anything that resembles independence as it might be understood in Scotland, though they do favour Cardiff taking on great powers.
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What conclusion can we draw from these differences? It would be foolish to deny the symbolic significance of three nationalist first ministers within the UK and they may well have an impact on the debates over constitutional change. It would be equally foolish, indeed perilous, to get carried away in a wave of nationalist hubris. It would be beyond foolish if SNP leaders deliberately discarded historical insight in the interest of a short-term strategy that could potentially do long-term damage to their cause.
Wise heads in the SNP, who know their history, will be aware of this danger. With apologies to WB Yeats for adapting a line from a great love poem to politics, Swinney should tread softly, lest he tread on his dreams.
Peter MacMahon is a writer and political commentator. He was born in Dublin and has always held an Irish passport